What to trade on May 9-13?

What to trade on May 9-13?

2022-05-06 • Updated

It was an intense week across all the markets! We saw decent movements of major pairs, gas, stock indices, and oil prices. What should we trade this week? Time to check!

Trade ideas

Forex

Last week was full of impactful events on the Forex market. First and foremost, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 50 basis points. The Fed indicated that despite its readiness to keep hiking rates this year, it’s not going to make an extraordinary big increase. This news pushed the major currencies higher versus the US dollar. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD tested the upper borders of their consolidation ranges. At the end of the week, the Bank of England’s meeting and the US nonfarm payrolls added to volatility. AUDUSD also enjoyed the week on the bigger-than-expected (to 0.35% vs the forecast of 0.25%) rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. We await the releases of US CPI and PPI to be the highlights of the next week.

Oil & Gold

The potential embargo of Russian supplies pushed the oil prices higher last week. XTIUSD left the triangle on the daily chart and tested the $107 level. XBRUSD rose to $110. The next resistance levels lie at $115 for WTI and $118 for Brent.

Gold jumped closer to the resistance zone at $1900-$1910 after the Fed interest rate decision. This week, it has the potential to strengthen towards the resistance at $1950. On the downside, $1850 and $1805 represent strong support levels.

Stocks

The stock market indices anticipate huge volatility after the inflation releases. Despite the rise of both S&P500 and Nasdaq after the Fed statement, it can be short-lived. As the level of inflation determines further steps by the Fed, a considerable rise will indicate tighter decisions by the bank. Thus, stock indices will plunge. In addition, look at the Netflix stock, as its shareholders filed a lawsuit against the company. The stock is already oversold, so it may start rising this week. The first resistance lies at $270.

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TRADE IDEA: EURUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD
TRADE IDEA: EURUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD

As I earlier indicated in my article this week, I am expecting an upward push from the Dollar as a reaction from the Demand zone I have marked out. The PPI release earlier moved prices a bit but lacked sufficient momentum to cause a significant break of structure - and thus, no change of trend.

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Markets are pricing Feds 75-basis-points rate hike. Thus, all attention will be drawn to Powell's rhetoric regarding the next decision at the December 14 meeting. How will it affect the USD?

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Last week, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, commented on the IMF's global economic outlook stating clearly that the worst was yet to come. For many people, he opined that the year 2023 would feel like a recession.

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The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.

TRADE IDEA: BREAKDOWN OF MAJOR PAIRS
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Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".

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