2021-09-03 • Updated
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The nonfarm payrolls missed estimates with +235K versus +720K expected. At the same time, the average hourly earnings advanced by 0.6% (vs. the forecast of 0.3%), and the unemployment rate came out in line with the forecast of 5.2%. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
This week, the main focus will be on the commodity-linked and risky currencies, such as the AUD and the CAD. Traders of these currencies await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and the Interest Rate Decision of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. If the banks hint at stimulus reduction, the local currencies will rise. AUD/USD surged above 0.7450 last week. If the bullish momentum continues, the next targets will lie at 0.7500 and 0.7540. On the downside, support levels lie at 0.7330 and 0.7270. For USD/CAD, the slide to 1.2430 will increase the chances of further falls to 1.2370. As for the euro, it can move on the ECB statement on Thursday. In case of the ECB’s hawkishness, the 1.1900 level will be easily broken.
The indices started last week on an extremely bullish note but cooled down. However, Friday's NFP boosted investor's confidence in further Fed's loose policy and pushed stocks higher. NASDAQ traded right below the 15 700 level, while S&P500 reached a beautiful mark of 4545. A big move happened on the chart of the Japanese index. In just three days it spiked towards June's high of 29 450. If the risk-on sentiment prevails, the resistance of 30 000 will be broken. On the downside, the support at 28 500 is the closest one.
Gold was above the resistance zone at 1820 in the post-NFP session, targeting the next obstacle at 1835. Keep in mind that the change in the USD strength may pull the metal lower to the support of 1790. As for oil prices, they tested higher levels on the USD weakness with WTI near 70 and Brent at 73.40. The next level for buyers of WTI is located at 72.20, while bulls of Brent will appreciate the spike to 75.30. The support levels for WTI and Brent lie at 67.70 and 71, respectively.
The following information is not investment advice. Remember that trading is risky. Manage your funds carefully and remember that you can use Take Profit and Stop Loss orders to maximize your gains and limit your losses.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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