US oil exports reached a record last week at five million barrels a day, according to Energy Information Administration data…
What will move the market on September 6-10?
2021-09-03 • Updated
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The nonfarm payrolls missed estimates with +235K versus +720K expected. At the same time, the average hourly earnings advanced by 0.6% (vs. the forecast of 0.3%), and the unemployment rate came out in line with the forecast of 5.2%. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
This week, the main focus will be on the commodity-linked and risky currencies, such as the AUD and the CAD. Traders of these currencies await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and the Interest Rate Decision of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. If the banks hint at stimulus reduction, the local currencies will rise. AUD/USD surged above 0.7450 last week. If the bullish momentum continues, the next targets will lie at 0.7500 and 0.7540. On the downside, support levels lie at 0.7330 and 0.7270. For USD/CAD, the slide to 1.2430 will increase the chances of further falls to 1.2370. As for the euro, it can move on the ECB statement on Thursday. In case of the ECB’s hawkishness, the 1.1900 level will be easily broken.
The indices started last week on an extremely bullish note but cooled down. However, Friday's NFP boosted investor's confidence in further Fed's loose policy and pushed stocks higher. NASDAQ traded right below the 15 700 level, while S&P500 reached a beautiful mark of 4545. A big move happened on the chart of the Japanese index. In just three days it spiked towards June's high of 29 450. If the risk-on sentiment prevails, the resistance of 30 000 will be broken. On the downside, the support at 28 500 is the closest one.
Oil & metals
Gold was above the resistance zone at 1820 in the post-NFP session, targeting the next obstacle at 1835. Keep in mind that the change in the USD strength may pull the metal lower to the support of 1790. As for oil prices, they tested higher levels on the USD weakness with WTI near 70 and Brent at 73.40. The next level for buyers of WTI is located at 72.20, while bulls of Brent will appreciate the spike to 75.30. The support levels for WTI and Brent lie at 67.70 and 71, respectively.
The following information is not investment advice. Remember that trading is risky. Manage your funds carefully and remember that you can use Take Profit and Stop Loss orders to maximize your gains and limit your losses.
The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
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The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".
Suddenly, the US Dollar Index fell 6.70% over the last two weeks, marking the biggest decrease in the currency since 2020.