Last week turned out to be disappointing for the AUD bulls, despite the gap up opening on Monday after the negotiations between the Chinese and US presidents. What are the reasons behind this slide?
Where Bitcoin is heading?
Bitcoin’s price spiked to $1,270 on Monday leaving it within $40 of its all-time high ($1,316) reached in early March on the speculation that the Securities and Exchange Commission might soon approve the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
Bitcoin has risen in price by almost 30% since the beginning of this year, and it shows no sign of letting up despite the numerous fundamental headwinds. Bitcoin incurred significant losses after suspension of all bitcoin withdrawals in China, after the Securities and Exchange Commission rejected Winklevoss’s proposal to establish the Bitcoin Trust, which would've traded on the BATS exchange; after the agency prohibited creation of the SolidX Bitcoin Trust, a bitcoin-focused exchange-traded fund that would’ve traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Since then, the cryptocurrency has pared some of its losses and spiked again.
After falling sharply during the second half of March, the bitcoin price managed to recoup its losses after Japan recognized bitcoin as a legal method of payment. Additional tailwind came out of Russia after the country’s authorities claimed that they might recognize the world’s most popular digital currency as a legitimate financial instrument next year.
Now, the coin Is becoming truly attractive to investors due to its rising profitability. The currency has become more stable, less volatile compared to the earlier stages of its existence. After spending two years in the doldrums, the currency came roaring back in 2016 when its price more than doubled. This year BTC rose even higher.
In the near-term future, one of the main drivers of the BTC/USD will be the SEC decision on a third bitcoin ETF proposal – the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (the ruling will be delivered somewhere in the third quarter). Another factor that might influence digit/traditional currency pair is the fact that Bitfinex’s customers are now long nearly 12, 967 coins, while 18, 775 coins are short. The data like these is viewed as a counter-indicator; when betting against the cryptocurrency increases, its raises the likelihood that any gains could be amplified as investors try to buy back the coins held short.
Short positions exceeded the long ones for the first time since February. The last time it happened, it preceded a nearly $300 rally in bitcoin price.
The main factor that determines the strong position of bitcoin at the present time and that might lead to its further appreciation is an increasing probability of the Segregated Witness (SegWit) activation, which is designed to solve a number of issues of network scaling.
The progress on the activation of SegWit in other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, Syscoin and DigiByte, has already led to a significant increase in their prices. And according to many analysts, bitcoin will rise higher against USD once SegWit is activated.
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