2019-11-11 • Updated
The beginning of the month was quite eventful for the Turkish lira. However, this week it started to lose its volatility.
What is happening?
The Turkish lira started to gain its momentum during the first week of November. It was supported by the higher-than-expected level of manufacturing PMI at 44.3 in October, but mostly by the political factor. In October, Turkey finally released from prison a US Pastor Andrew Brunson, who has been held for fake accusations of terrorism and espionage. In addition, Turkey removed the counter-sanctions on two US ministers. In addition, Turkey was added by the White House into the list of the 8 countries, who would continue buying Iranian oil despite sanctions. As a result, USD/TRY fell significantly.
However, the overall economic conditions of the country are still unstable. The level of consumer inflation released on November 5 hit 25.24% - the highest level in 15 years. In addition, the hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve last week made the US dollar strong. That fact weakened USD/TRY.
That is why the government started to implement measures to reduce the depreciation of the Turkish lira and to take control of the price behavior. The Treasury and Finance Ministry reduced the current account deficit amid the expectations for positive data by the end of 2018. These expectations include the country’s inflation rate target at 23.5% this year, 15.9% in 2019, 9.8% in 2020. Other measures included a 10% cut on prices, a decrease of interest rates on loans by 10% and tax cuts on furniture and vehicles.
For now, USD/TRY is trading within the downward moving channel formed within the August maximum and September’s minimum. The pair has been stuck between the strong support at 5.2860 and the upper border of the downward channel since the beginning of the week.
If the Turkish lira is supported by the positive news, USD/TRY can fall below 5.2860. In that case, the next support lies at 5.1280.
On the other side, if the strong US dollar breaks the upper border of the channel and pulls the price above the resistance at 5.52, the bullish pressure for the pair increases. In that case, watch the next resistance at 5.8540.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.
Your request is accepted.
A manager will call you shortly.
Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in
If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat
Internal error. Please try again later
Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
|
