Why is the Turkish lira  crawling?

Why is the Turkish lira crawling?

2019-11-11 • Updated

The beginning of the month was quite eventful for the Turkish lira. However, this week it started to lose its volatility.

What is happening?

The Turkish lira started to gain its momentum during the first week of November. It was supported by the higher-than-expected level of manufacturing PMI at 44.3 in October, but mostly by the political factor. In October, Turkey finally released from prison a US Pastor Andrew Brunson, who has been held for fake accusations of terrorism and espionage. In addition, Turkey removed the counter-sanctions on two US ministers.  In addition, Turkey was added by the White House into the list of the 8 countries, who would continue buying Iranian oil despite sanctions. As a result, USD/TRY fell significantly.

However, the overall economic conditions of the country are still unstable. The level of consumer inflation released on November 5 hit 25.24% - the highest level in 15 years. In addition, the hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve last week made the US dollar strong.  That fact weakened USD/TRY.

That is why the government started to implement measures to reduce the depreciation of the Turkish lira and to take control of the price behavior. The Treasury and Finance Ministry reduced the current account deficit amid the expectations for positive data by the end of 2018. These expectations include the country’s inflation rate target at 23.5% this year, 15.9% in 2019, 9.8% in 2020. Other measures included a 10% cut on prices, a decrease of interest rates on loans by 10% and tax cuts on furniture and vehicles.  

For now, USD/TRY is trading within the downward moving channel formed within the August maximum and September’s minimum. The pair has been stuck between the strong support at 5.2860 and the upper border of the downward channel since the beginning of the week.


If the Turkish lira is supported by the positive news, USD/TRY can fall below 5.2860. In that case, the next support lies at 5.1280.  

On the other side, if the strong US dollar breaks the upper border of the channel and pulls the price above the resistance at 5.52, the bullish pressure for the pair increases. In that case, watch the next resistance at 5.8540.


USD Skyrocketing
USD Skyrocketing

Daily Chart  The US Dollar soared higher since the beginning of the Asian session until this report is released…

Latest news

Can a recession be avoided? 
Can a recession be avoided? 

The pandemic continues to hurt economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession.

British pound breakout soon?
British pound breakout soon?

Great Britain released retail sales data on May 20, 9:00 GMT+3. The reading outperformed expectations greatly (+1.4% actual vs. -0.3% forecast).

Deposit with your local payment systems

Be on top of your game

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera