2023-10-26 • Actualizada
Core inflation has improved recently, but the ECB is cautious due to fluctuating oil prices that could rekindle headline inflation. Another ECB interest rate hike is viewed as unlikely at present. Monetary data, economic indicators, and wage growth suggest a more stable underlying inflation trend. In light of this data, it seems prudent for the ECB to pause further rate hikes. Leading experts also propose that current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive. Furthermore, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank, among others, anticipate no interest rate adjustments, consistent with the ECB's stance that rates have significantly contributed to inflation control. While discussions regarding the end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) may arise, a decision in this regard is not expected until early 2024.
From the chart, we see that price is currently at a supply zone on the daily timeframe of EURGBP. There are also other confluences pointing to the likelihood of a bearish move, including; a trendline, and a moving average resistance.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 0.86509
Invalidation: 0.87444
The price action on EURNZD is a bit tricky but the market structure is quite clear - price broke below the previous low before reacting at the trendline support. This means we can now consider the market to be in a bearish trend. The current zone is a supply zone that I believe will provide the final confirmation of the change in market sentiment.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.78455
Invalidation: 1.83173
EURAUD on the daily timeframe is currently reacting from the 88% Fibonacci retracement level, and could be heading towards the 200-day moving average as its target. This is not based on speculations, but rather the market structure; we see a bearish break of structure, a Quasimodo pattern, as well as the Fibonacci retracement level.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.65490
Invalidation: 1.68700
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Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 150.30 con TP1:150.00... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Compras intradía sobre 149.40 con TP: 150.00, TP2:151.00
Panorama General de la semana pasada…
Análisis Fundamental y Análisis técnico EURUSD, EURGBP y EURCAD
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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