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WTI oil: up at $62 while OPEC+ decides
2021-03-04 • Updated
Today, OPEC+ is expected to announce how much exactly oil they will supply to the oil market in the coming months. More specifically, what the supply increase will be. The Saudi approach favors a cautious strategy with an expected 500,000bdp increase - that stands against the Russian view on the matter that supposes 1,500,000bpd should be added to the daily supply. That'll be known this Thursday evening, most probably.
In the meantime, a missile landed at the Saudi Aramco site near Jeddah. That was one of the two incidents claimed by Yemen's Houthis (fighting against the UN-recognised government in Yemen) who allegedly attacked a Saudi airbase as well. That might have been the main factor that made the oil price rise to $62 recently. Another factor was the fall of the US oil inventories that spurred the price to the upside.
Now, while Saudi Arabia achieved to produce an image of a very flexible and cautious oil market player, they have a very strong negotiating leverage currently - that 1mln bpd that they voluntarily cut from their production plan to support the price. That's just to say, be prepared to see anything from a modest increase lower than the market expectation to the highest reasonable number. At the end of the day, it's OPEC - things are rarely straightforward there.
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