2020-05-15 • Updated
The American crude inventories are shrinking faster than expected. That reflects the global situation around oil: the glut is shrinking, the demand is coming back. That’s good news overall, and the oil price is appreciating that. However, there is certain fundamental equilibrium at the moment: from purely the oil industry standpoint, things are improving with the demand catching up with the supply; from the geopolitical perspective, the US-China relations are a bit tensed and may be preventing the price from rising.
Now, from a technical perspective, there is an obvious consolidation at the resistance level of $26.50. Very likely, as soon as the fundamental equilibrium is broken, that resistance will also be left: either upwards, or downward, depending on where the news will tilt the table. The main question is, how the absence of news and fundamental silence should be interpreted? In the mid-term, if nothing comes from the US-china front, and neither from the oil sector, it should push the price because the glut is diminishing “naturally” anyway, while any impediment for the market correction would need to come from the political side in a form of a conscious state effort. Hence, the absence of the latter will automatically give way for the price to rise.
Earnings season is a crucial time for investors and analysts, as it provides insights into how well companies have performed over the past quarter and gives indications of their future earnings. In 2023, expectations for US Q1 earnings were low due to economic challenges and rising interest rates. Surprisingly, many companies beat these low expectations, with 75% of S&P 500 companies surpassing forecasts.
When I started trading stocks a few years ago, I often needed to pay more attention to my technical analysis skills and trust that the market would play fair according to my analysis. I have since discovered that the safer approach to trading stocks is to, more often than not, seek out investing opportunities - that is, catching stock commodities with a potential to rise.
The S&P 500 had a good week due to the impressive start of Q1 earnings and favorable inflation data. In March, the consumer price index rose 5%, lower than the previous month's 6%, and met economists' expectations.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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