Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.
XAU/USD: gold is lying on the shelf
2019-11-11 • Updated
TP 1250 TP2 1270 TP3 1289
On the daily chart, after XAU/USD had reached 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern there was a natural pullback. Bears are counting on the decline to the 113% target. For that, they have to pull the price below July low.
On H1, there’s a “Spike and ledge” pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. A break of the upper border of the 1218-1235 consolidation range will trigger a butterfly pattern with a target at 127.2%. On the other hand, a successful test of 1218 will open the way to the 127.2% target of AB=CD.
Gold prices have experienced four consecutive weeks of decline, with a 3.6% drop in the current month, marking the worst performance since February. Despite this decline, retail traders are showing increased bullish sentiment toward gold. This suggests that some investors see the lower prices as an attractive buying opportunity.
Here's the latest news from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While speaking at a conference in Portugal, Powell expressed optimism about the US economy and decreased the possibility of a recession, stating that the economy has shown resilience and is still growing, albeit at a modest pace. He acknowledged the possibility of a recession but emphasized that it is not the most likely scenario.
On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields, supported by a "higher-for-longer" narrative, further weakened demand for gold...
Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.