The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
XAU/USD near-term outlook
2019-11-11 • Updated
The bullion rose to $1245 as Trump-related news sparked safe-haven demand.
Gold has started its upsurge last week following Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey. On Monday, Trump was accused of disclosing the US highly classified intelligence information to Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. The yellow metal got an additional boost following the high-rank meeting in Oval Office.
The latest news appeared on Tuesday in the New York Times. It said that President Donald Trump tried to influence an FBI investigation into the ties between former US security advisor Michael Flynn and Russian authorities. Investors are questioning now whether there is a possibility of impeachment as Donald Trump allegedly obstructed justice (an impeachable offense in the US). The White House denied the NYT’s revelation.
The investors perceived the turmoil in Trump’s West Wing as yet more doubt that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and other pro-growth policies will be introduced. The US dollar is still under pressure, while safe-haven assets caught a bid on Trump’s concerns.
The bullion’s prices are hovering near the key resistance at $1247.30 (which a lower border of the previous upward trading channel + it is located near 200-day and 50-day MAs). If bulls manage to test the following level and rise towards $1270, we might see the continuation of the rally towards $1295.80 (this year high). In the opposite scenario, the prices risk sliding towards supports at $1228.60, 1213.85 levels.
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.