As you must already know, the direction of Gold is mainly dependent on the Price action of DXY (US Dollar index). So first, we take a look at the US Dollar index.
XAU/USD: what’s the pattern?
2022-12-16 • Updated
SELL 1,404; TP 1,390; SL 1,408
BUY 1,426; TP 1,435; SL 1,423
XAU/USD soared in June but didn’t manage to get above 1,440. During the past three weeks, the price of gold consolidated between that level o the upside and 1,380 on the downside. Although the asset looked overbought, the weakness of the USD kept the price near the highs, so short positions turned out to be premature. Now, however, the price action looks very much like the “diamond” pattern that tends to precede a reversal. Still, to trade on it we would need a confirmation: a decline at least below 1,404. The initial targets will be at 1,390 and 1,371. This scenario looks like the path of least resistance technically.
However, there’s a substantial fundamental chance that the policy of the Fed will keep the USD under pressure. In this case, XAU/USD could strengthen. The price would be able to at least retest the 1,435 area if it rises above 1,425.
A comparative examination of the strength of the US-Dollar often gives tangible insight into the direction of Gold (XAUUSD). The chart above indicates the expectation of a bullish price reaction from the demand zone.
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