XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally

XBRUSD: Prepares to Correct Intraday Rally

2024-01-12 • Updated

Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 with S.L. above 81.00 or at least 1% of account capital*.

Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00 with S.L. below 77.00 or at least 1% of account capital*. Apply trailing stop.

Fundamental Outlook

The recent attack by the United States and its allies on over a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen, in retaliation for a series of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, has led to a bullish opening in crude oil markers out of fear of potential disruptions in maritime transport and the conflict escalating into a broader regional conflagration.

However, while the conflict has not yet translated into an actual disruption of oil supply, prices are expected to continue at a moderate ascent driven solely by market speculation until news of diplomatic negotiations or temporary resolutions emerge. On the other hand, OPEC+ production cuts and tight demand will maintain a balanced situation in the short term.

Intraday H1

XBRUSD, with a 100% bullish opening, rose 2.5% between the Asian and European sessions, reaching the selling zone at the Point of Control (POC)* from December 27 at 80.31. The rebound from this zone indicates that bears are defending it to prompt a decline towards the broken resistance at 79.34 and the buying zone around 78.00, where yesterday's uncovered POC* and the daily average bearish range are located, allowing coverage of the volume inefficiency of today's opening. The RSI reaching the overbought area may offer a bearish signal by confirming its decline below 70.

*Uncovered POC. POC= Point of Control: It is the level or zone where the highest volume concentration occurred. If a bearish movement follows, it is considered a selling zone. If there was a bullish impulse, it is considered a buying zone.

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**Consider this risk management suggestion**It is crucial to base risk management on capital and traded volume. A maximum risk of 1% of capital is recommended. The use of risk management indicators such as the Easy Order is suggested.

Disclaimer: This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell or buy financial products and should not be considered as a solicitation or an offer to engage in a transaction. This document is the author's economic research and does not intend to constitute investment advice, solicit securities transactions, or any other type of investment from FBS. Although every investment involves a certain degree of risk, the risk of loss from trading currencies and other leveraged assets can be substantial. Therefore, if you are considering trading in this market, you must be aware of the risks associated with this product to make informed decisions before investing. The material presented here should not be interpreted as advice or trading strategy. All prices mentioned in this report are for informational purposes only.


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