Сonflict in Eastern Europe: Breaking Point

Сonflict in Eastern Europe: Breaking Point

What happened? 

On Monday, February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Putin also signed treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the leaders of these areas.

On the morning of February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an emergency conference and announced the start of a special military operation in the Donetsk People's Republic.

"The goal is to protect people who have been bullying by the Kiev regime for eight years," he stated.

Joe Biden claimed the United States and its allies would impose tough sanctions because they consider Russia’s actions an invasion. Among them are sanctions against energy companies, the banking sector and export control.

How this situation affects global markets?

Russia is the 2nd largest US oil supplier and the 2nd largest natural gas producer globally. Therefore, risks of potential supply issues of these natural resources boosted prices rapidly. As a result, XBR/USD raised above $100 per barrel and XNG/USD gained 5%.

Gold, as safe-haven, asset grows faster than other assets. The yellow metal increased 3% and reached the key resistance at $1960.

In case of further conflict escalation, natural resources will keep momentum. As a result, oil prices might increase above $115 per barrel, and gold might reach $2050 per ounce.

The military conflict also affected the global stock market. On February 24, the US indices lost around 3%, while Chinese Hang Seng plunged 2.7%.

In the worst situation, US indices have an opportunity for another 6% drop and reach 3900 for US500 and 11000 for US100. 

The US dollar is dominating the currency market as the safe-haven asset. It looks like this trend will keep the momentum as AUD/USD heads towards 0.7000, EUR/USD looks for support at 1.1000, and GBP/USD has an opportunity to drop at 1.3200.

US500Weekly.png

 

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