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The Bank of Mexico is expected to cut its interest rate from 7.75% to 7.5% today at 21:00 MT time
The market has been already pricing in the interest rate decision. On H4, USD/MXN has tested the highs at 19.48-19.50. That is why the pair may move lower after the announcement.
If the Banxico surprises with a bigger rate cut, the Mexican peso will weaken. In this case, the retest of the 19.48-19.5 levels may be possible for USD/MXN. The next resistance will lie at 19.5450.
If the regulator leaves the interest rate unchanged, the Mexican currency will strengthen. This scenario increases the opportunity for USD/MXN to break the 19.41 level on H4. The next support will lie at 19.34.
During the daily press briefing of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, it was announced that Mexico will receive 1.4 million doses of the vaccine by the end of January. Is that optimistic enough for the peso?
The US unemployment claims are announced on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
The Canadian monthly GDP is announced on Wednesday at 15:30 MT time.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
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