ECB is ready to take the decision about the key rate. What to expect from officials? Oil prices are high, and economy indicators demonstrate the slowing down in the strongest European economies.
2-0-7 - something new for the BOE
The Bank of England released an interest rate. As expected, it was left on hold at 0.5%. However, this time votes were divided: 7 members voted to keep the rate unchanged when 2 voted to hike. It can signal the rate increase in May. Moreover, the governor Mark Carney said that the prospects of excess demand over the forecast period, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy can support the inflation return to its target.
However, the statement contained mixed data. Let’s see.
- CPI inflation fell from 3.0% to 2.7% in February. And it is supposed to fall further, but it will stay above 2.0%.
- Pay growth continued to increase. And it is anticipated to rise further based on the tightening labor market. So growth in wages and unit labor costs will rise in the future.
- The unemployment rate stayed low.
- US GDP growth was weaker in the fourth quarter but the central bank sees indicators of exports and investment point to a stronger picture.
- Carney did not leave Brexit negotiations out of attention. According to the BOE’s release, Brexit will stay a source of uncertainty, weighing on households, businesses and asset prices.
Although we can anticipate a tighter monetary policy and soon rate hike, the Governor said nothing concrete. The statement was quite vague. Furthermore, investors anticipated the rate hike in May, so it did not become a surprise. As a result, the pound has weakened. If the greenback is able to recover, the sterling will fall further. The support lies at 1.4070.
The Fed is going to take a decision about the interest rate. This is the crucial news for the following week. What's going on in the markets and what to expect?
The market is pricing that the Fed will leave the rate at the same level. Meanwhile the major players think that the Fed will start with the monetary easing in the second quarter 2024.
Oil prices are rising and Russia banned the export of its petrol. What's happening in the markets?
Today's main event for the markets is the FOMC Interest Rate Decision, where the US regulator is widely expected to keep the interest rate at the same level of 5.5%.
In today's market insights, we delve into Citibank's oil price predictions, the evolving competition between Huawei and Apple, the Saudi Arabia-Tesla partnership, and the upcoming rate decisions from the world's major central banks.