Brazil is struggling on both the humanitarian and the financial frontы. As a result, Brazilian real is weakening
5 important events this week will bring us!
- French and German flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI (Wed, 10:15 MT and 10:30 MT (7:15 GMT and 7:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, French flash services PMI will decline to 52.7, while German data will show mixed results with flash manufacturing PMI increasing to 45.1 and flash services PMI falling to 55.3 points. Higher figures will support the EUR.
- Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe (Thu, 6:05 MT (3:05 GMT)) – If the head of the bank is hawkish, the AUD will rise.
- ECB monetary policy statement (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT)) – We will wait for more hints on the possible easing by the European central bank. If they are confirmed, the EUR may suffer. Also, pay attention to the press conference with the ECB president Mario Draghi at 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time. His comments may show us a clearer picture of the future steps by the bank.
- US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast an increase by 0.2%. If the actual level of indicator is greater, the USD will go up.
- US advance GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth for the US is expected to advance by 1.8%. A higher level will be good for the USD bulls.
- Great Britain is awaiting the leadership voting contest for the Conservative party on Tuesday. The outcome will determine the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The members of the party will choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. Most analysts see Mr. Johnson, the hard-Brexit follower, taking the office. Some ministers do not support his candidature and resign ahead of the elections’ outcome. The political uncertainties within the leading party weaken the British pound. It is recommended to follow the headlines, as more negative news puts additional pressure on the GBP. The outcome of the contest will be announced after the 19:00 MT (16:00 GMT) time.
- The oil prices surged after the British tanker was seized by the Iranian military forces over the weekend. The conflict in the Middle East is what driving crude’s prices now.
- According to the Chinese press, Chinese companies started to seek for new purchases of US agricultural products. Some of the analysists see this news as the positive step towards the restart of the US-China trade talks.
USD/CHF and EUR/CHF rose to tactical highs. What's next?
Eurozone, France, and Germany will publish the flash services and manufacturing PMIs on February 19, from 10:15 to 11:00 MT time
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