The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
5 important events this week will bring us!
- RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT time (3:30 GMT)) – The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.75%. Traders need to pay attention to the tone of the statement, as the regulator may provide hints on the possible changes to the interest rate in future. If the RBA forecasts a slash of the interest rate to the downside, the AUD will weaken.
- Canadian balance of trade (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the deficit of the balance will shorten to -0.7 billion CAD. Higher figures will boost the Canadian dollar.
- US balance of trade (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The deficit of trade for the United States is expected to get lower to -$49 billion. If the actual level is higher, the USD will rise.
- Canadian job data (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to increase to 5.6%. Also, the employment change will be released, although the forecasts have not been announced yet. A higher-than-expected employment change and lower-than-expected unemployment rate will support the US dollar.
- American job data (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The US will release NFP alongside with average hourly earnings and unemployment rate. Experts anticipate the number of payrolls to advance by 180 thousand jobs, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 3.6%.
- The improvement of the Chinese manufacturing PMI (51.8 vs. 51.5 expected) during the Asian trading session boosted the risk sentiment in the market and pushed the risk-weighted assets up.
- After the biggest Friday’s loss, the oil prices rebounded as Iraq announced deeper oil cuts ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.
- A fresh report on the US-China trade deal expects US President Donald Trump to hold off the implementation of tariffs on December 15. At the same time, it does not expect the deal to be reached this year.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.