The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
5 important events this week will bring us!
- British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 1.8%. If the actual level is higher, the GBP will rise.
- Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – As for Canada’s consumer inflation index, we are awaiting it to decline by 0.2%.
- FOMC rate statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its interest rate from 2.25-2% to 1.75-2%. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the dot plot, where the FOMC representatives are going to express their views on the future rate changes. After that, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also provide comments which may shake the USD at 21:30 MT time.
- Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – The employment change is expected to increase by 15.2 thousand jobs, while unemployment change will likely remain at the same level of 5.2%. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will be positive for the aussie.
- The monetary policy summary by the BOE (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 0.75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the statement. Hawkish comments will push the GBP up.
- Crude oil surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian production facility over the weekend. An attack affected 5% of global crude output. Today, US president Donald Trump announced that he would release US emergency supplies to pull the oil prices down. In addition, oil producers said that there were enough stocks stored up worldwide. However, the fresh attacks pushed prices of WTI and Brent back to their May’s levels.
- US and China trade representatives will meet on Friday. The goal of the meeting will be to discuss the possibility of an interim trade deal. We expect risk sentiment to be affected.
- The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a meeting with the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker today, where they agreed that Brexit talks must intensify.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.