The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
5 news this week will bring us!
- British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 2%. Higher figures will be supportive for the British pound.
- Canadian CPI and trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT) – The level of the consumer price index for Canada is expected to increase by 0.7%. As for its trade balance, it will come out at -$3.5 billion. If the actual figures are higher, the CAD will rise.
- Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to advance by 15.2 thousand people. At the same time, the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will get positive momentum.
- French flash services PMI, German flash services and manufacturing PMI (Thu, 10:15 and 10:30 MT) – If the actual levels of indicators outperform the projections, the EUR will go up.
- US retail sales and core retail sales (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – The level of retail sales are anticipated to increase by 0.9%. As for its core level, it will likely rise by 0.7%. Let's see how these releases affect the USD.
- The market will be closely watching the release of the Chinese GDP growth on Wednesday at 5:00 MT time for the hints on the global slowdown. Analysts anticipate the indicator to reach 6.3%. If it comes out lower than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will go down.
- The trade talks between the US and Japan will be held on April 15-16 in Washington. The key issues of discussion will include the US tariffs on Japanese autos and Japan’s tariffs on the agricultural goods. While the US side hopes to resolve the key issues quickly, Japan may show the opposition on making an agricultural deal. According to the unnamed official, this deal may violate the rules of WTO. Positive progress on the deal will be appreciated by the market.
- During the weekend, Donald Trump criticized the Fed again, noting that it made unnecessary rate hikes. “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points,” the president tweeted on Sunday. “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!”, - said the US president. At the same time, the ECB president Mario Draghi expressed his worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve during the IMF meeting.
- Russia added worries to the oil bulls. According to the Russian officials, the country wants to pump more oil to compete with the US on the market share. This news may pull the price for oil down.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.