Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 19:05 MT time. This event is crucial for traders as the tone of the speech may set the risk tone for the markets for the next two weeks.
5 things you need to know this week
- Reserve bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes (Tue, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT)) – the central bank is anticipated to repeat its positive economic forecasts, at the same time being cautious about the further steps in monetary policy.
- Speech by the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT)) – On Monday the Japanese governor Haruhiko Kuroda said about the good conditions of the economy. BOJ will continue to conduct its ultra-loose monetary policy, according to his words. He mentioned the declining profits of regional banks as one of the risks of destabilizing the financial system. We will see, how his speech in Tokyo on Tuesday can affect the Japanese currency.
- British inflation report hearings (Tue, 12:00 MT (10 GMT)) – the Governor of the Bank of England and the monetary policy committee are scheduled to present the inflation report to the Parliament.
- US Core durable goods orders m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) – the indicator is expected to rise by 0.4%. It represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders for durable goods, excluding transportation items.
- Canadian CPI and core retail sales m/m (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Last months' digits for both of the indicators disappointed the investors. They fell by 0.4% (vs. expected rise of +0.1%). The forecasts have not been released yet, but we are awaiting them closer to the release. If this month's data is higher than the expectations, the Canadian dollar can gain.
- US vice president Mike Pence fueled the tensions between the US and China during the APEC talks in Papua New Guinea. He warned APEC nations against taking Chinese loans. At the same time, Chinese president Xi expressed his negative opinion on US tariffs. The disagreement on WTO reforms led countries to failure on reaching a consensus on the final statement after two days of speaking. As for the US and China, this weekend added doubts on reaching a further deal during the meeting of US president Trump and Xi Jimping at the G20 Summit.
- Brexit news keeps attracting the attention of the market. For now, Theresa May received 42 votes of no-confidence. If this number reaches 48, the possibility for May to stay as a leader of the party and the prime minister will decline. In addition, Michel Barnier suggested prolonging a transition period for Great Britain to December 2022. We anticipate the special EU summit on November 25 as a date for discussing the deal between sides.
- Oil fell after the comments made by Iranian president Rouhani. He noted that the US failed with sanctions. Iran will continue to supply oil to other nations.
- The European Commission is expected to deliver its response to the proposal of the revised Italian budget on Wednesday. Earlier, Italy left its deficit target unchanged at 2.4 percent in 2019. Future uncertainties can shake the euro.
Have a successful week of trading!
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time.
Australian GDP rose by 3.1%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 2.5%. The Australian dollar climbed after the release, but then joined its peers in falling against the USD.
Great news for oil bulls! OPEC and its allied producers agreed to expand output cuts for the next month.
The USD skyrocketed after Fed Powell’s speech. OPEC and allied producers agreed to extend production cuts for another month. Oil surged.
The European Central Bank publishes its monetary policy statement that includes an announcement of the interest rate on March 11, at 14:45 MT time.