The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
A block of the key US statistics
The United States will make two important data releases at 15:30 MT time on September 27. The first indicator, durable goods orders, is a leading indicator of American production. It reflects the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed by manufacturers for durable goods. The higher the indicator’s growth, the better for the USD. The last time this indicator was released, it disappointed traders. It turned out that the demand for long-lasting goods produced by US factories fell in July because of a decline in aircraft sales. Naturally, the market will now be eager to see whether the situation has improved or not. The second event is the third and the final release of American GDP growth for the second quarter. According to the previous estimate of the US economic growth, the nation’s economy is performing at its best in nearly four years. A confirmation of that will be bullish for USD.
• If the data is greater than the forecast, the USD will rise.
• If the data is weaker than the forecast, the USD will fall.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.