Riskier assets and gold ended last week with huge gains due to the weak US dollar’s performance. Let’s discuss what will drive the markets today.
American economic surge will probably speed down in 2019
Compared to last year, the American economy is going to surge more slowly this year. That’s what Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin told on Friday. The statesman added that he’s concerned about such economic risks as trade policy as well as financial market volatility.
The statesman foresaw surge would resume in 2019, although at a somewhat slower tempo. That’s what the statesman revealed in a prepared statement for a bankers luncheon in Baltimore.
The statesman, who doesn’t have a vote on monetary policy in 2019, although takes part in the US major financial institution’s debates, told that the American economy was coming off a firm year, with unemployment sticking with a 49-year minimum and inflation on target.
Barkin told that as America enters new year, he’s overwhelmed with concerns. For instance, some of his worries have to do with environment, powered by politics or trade. Other concerns turn out to be market driven due to the fact that volatility has gone up and the yield curve has shrunk.
A deceleration in productivity surge actually drops a hint that economic surge will most probably average 1.9% over the long run, which appears to be far slower than now, the statesman pointed out.
As a matter of fact, the American economy speeded down in the third quarter, although the tempo appeared to be firm enough to keep surge on track to hit the current presidential administration's 3% objective this year. However, early in the fourth quarter, momentum happens to have moderated further.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to soothe market fears that America’s major financial institution was neglecting signs of an economic deceleration, telling that he was aware of the risks and would be flexible and patient in policy decisions in 2019.
The US president is back to White House after three days spent in the hospital. Riskier assets rose, while safe havens dipped.
The market sentiment has switched to risk-on, driving upwards stocks and riskier currencies and weighing on the US dollar.
Canada’s retail sales will be out on October 21 at 15:30 MT time. Get ready with us for this event!
The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.