Will sentiment remain risk-on on Monday?
Riskier assets and gold ended last week with huge gains due to the weak US dollar’s performance. Let’s discuss what will drive the markets today.
American third-quarter GDP rallies by 3.5%
In the third quarter, the American GDP managed to head north by 3.5%. That’s what follows from data published on Wednesday. It has confirmed an initial forecast, thus leaving the US economy on track for its most impressive yearly expansion since 2005.
As the Bureau of Economic Analysis informed, GDP recorded a seasonally-updated annual rate of 3.5% surge for the three-month from July to September. It happened to be lower than analyst’s expectations for a 3.6% leap.
In addition to this, financial analysts actually expect the firm expansion to resume in the fourth quarter. However, they’re assured that it would be at a slower pace, in the face of estimates that surge will also moderate next year because of the probable fallout from escalating trade clashes, particularly between China and America.
The most recent IHS Markit polls on business activity hinted at surge of 2.5% for the last three months of 2018, matching the current estimate from the Atlanta Fed.
The American economy has performed really good in 2018, with a firm jobs market as well as huge tax cuts assisting to generate the greatest year of GDP surge since 2005. However, maintaining this momentum next year will be difficult, considering the headwinds of the lagged effects of the firm greenback as well as higher interest rates, not to mention the fading support from the fiscal stimulus and also intensifying trade protectionism at a time of softer global surge, as some financial analysts pointed out.
Other experts also told that the decelerating might already be underway due to the fact that companies became less optimistic as for the outlook in November as well as decreased growth in hiring.
As for goods exports, they’re also under soaring pressure, often linked to trade conflicts having affected demand.
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Risk-on is back on the market
The market sentiment has switched to risk-on, driving upwards stocks and riskier currencies and weighing on the US dollar.
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The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
Uncertainty underpinned USD
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.
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