Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
An index that will rock USD
What will happen?
The United States will publish the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, January 6, at 17:00 GMT+2 (MetaTrader time).
Why is it important?
The index shows how managers estimate business conditions in the services industry. It’s better when this indicator is increasing. In addition, there is another thing to consider. Look at the indicator’s value: if it’s above 50, the services industry is expanding, and all is well. The industry is contracting if the ISM Non-Manufacturing index shows a reading below 50.0. The relation between the indicator and the US dollar is straightforward. The higher the ISM Non-Manufacturing index is, the better for the USD.
What happened last time?
On December 3, the ISM Non-Manufacturing index came out much higher than expected. The number was 69.1 versus the forecast of 64.9. As a result, USD/CAD rose from 1.2780 to 1.2840 during the several hours after the release.
How to trade on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI?
Open the economic calendar a few days before the US Initial Jobless Claims release. How high is the forecast? Notice that the recent readings have been very high. As a result, it won’t be easy for the indicator to outmatch forecasts.
- If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, the USD will go up.
- If the actual figure misses the forecast, the USD will go down.
Instruments to trade: all the major pairs and XAU/USD
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Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
Every week we expect many interesting events that can shake the market.