The ECB statement and US unemployment claims will be out today. How the market will react?
Annual inflation is updated downwards to 1.9% in euro zone
November’s euro zone consumer price inflation was suddenly updated downwards on Monday, thus contributing to skepticism that the EU’s key financial institution won’t be able to move ahead with an interest rate lift next year.
As the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat told, CPI went up by 1.9% last month from the same month of 2017.
By the way, consensus had anticipated no change from the initial forecast of 2%.
Without tobacco, energy, food and alcohol prices, core inflation managed to surge by an annual rate of about 1%, intact from the preliminary forecast and also in line with estimates.
A headline inflation rated targeted by the European Central Bank is below 2%, although close to it.
At its last policy gathering earlier in December, the EU’s major bank left interest rates intact and also confirmed plans to have its huge bond buying stimulus program wound up. While no longer adding extra purchases to its €2.6 trillion four-year-long bond purchasing initiative, the monetary authority is on the verge of reinvesting principal payments from maturing securities. It’s expected to be done for an extended period of time past the day when it starts lifting the major ECB interest rates.
As ECB Governor Mario Draghi stressed, the risks to the euro area surge outlook are still balanced enough. However, he added that the balance was diving due to uncertainties as for the threat of protectionism, geopolitical factors, and also vulnerabilities in emerging markets as well as financial market volatility.
Notwithstanding the decision to stop the asset buying program, financial markets have become extremely skeptical about the EU’s key bank moving forward with a rate lift in 2019.
In general, most market participants are currently concerned about the timing of the first rate lift.
The European Central Bank will publish the last statement of the year on December 10, at 14:45 MT time.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) will release the rate statement with an update on the interest rate on December 9, at 17:00 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.