The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Beating data from Microsoft and Google, Fed is eyed
- Microsoft and Google have published strong earnings data. Google gained from ad sales and internet search. Microsoft mostly benefited from the cloud-computing product, Azure and big gains for Xbox helped as well. Keep an eye on the charts of these stocks as they may rise today on the positive earnings data.
- S&P 500 (US 500) and NASDAQ (US 100), which include these stocks, are driving up. However, the rise is quite modest due to the drop of Tesla.
- Australia published worse-than-expected inflation data signaling Australia will lag major economies like the Fed. That pressed down the Australian dollar.
- The main focus of traders is on the Fed meeting today. According to Bloomberg, if the Fed changes the policy direction today or gives any sign of it, we might see a massive correction on the market. It’s a must-see event for traders. Don’t miss out!
- OPEC+ members claimed it would add more oil supply to the market as Chinese and US economies are recovering and the demand growth is widely expected.
USD/JPY has finally escaped the channel, breaking through its upper line. If it manages to break through the resistance zone of 109.00-109.15, it will rally up further to the early April highs of 109.90-110.00. However, since the RSI indicator is close to 70.00, the price is too high and the reverse down may happen soon. If it crosses yesterday’s low of 108.65, it will fall to the 50-period moving average of 108.25.
AUD/USD is falling on the poor inflation data. It’s getting closer to the lower line of Bollinger Bands of 0.7720. If it manages to break it, the way down to the chain of recent lows of 0.7700 will be open. The price shouldn’t break lower 0.7700 on the first try. The move above the midline of BB at 0.7760 will push the pair up to Monday’s high of 0.7800.
EUR/USD is edging higher inside the channel in the short term, but the long-term trend is still downward. Thus, if it breaks through 1.2110, it will push the pair further up to the two-months high of 1.2175. Support levels are the 100-day moving average of 1.2050 and the one-week low of 1.2000.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Australia will release employment change and an unemployment rate on Thursday, October 14, at 03:30 MT (GMT+3).
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).