The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Biden's stimulus is unveiled
- “Help is here,” Biden tweeted as the House passed the much-awaited $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, one of the largest stimulus packages in US history.
- US Core Consumer Price Index came out worse than expected and calmed down the markets about the US economy overheating and eased inflation fears.
- The Dow Jones surged to a record high of 32,420.
- Investors are still cautious about high-priced growth stocks (Amazon, Netflix, Facebook), which dropped on rising yields. Whereas, cyclical stocks such as airlines, hotels, automakers, and banks (General Motors, Booking, JPMorgan) keep rising on optimism over the global recovery.
- Crude Oil Inventories fell short of analysts’ expectations. 13.8M barrels were held in inventories in the last week, while the forecast was 3.0M. However, oil prices are rising due to the US stimulus package.
EUR/USD has approached the key level of 1.1.1950, which was acting as resistance in 2020 and as support in 2021. Thus, it’s likely to bounce off 1.1950 rather than break out. Support levels are at the 200-day moving average of 1.1815 and 1.1775.
GBP/USD has gotten closer to the resistance at the high of March 3 at 1.3950. If it manages to break it, the way up to the next round number of 1.4000 will be open. Support levels are at Monday’s low of 1.3800 and 1.3750.
Gold is climbing. If it manages to break through the high of March 2 at $1740, doors will be open to the 100-period moving average of $1750. Support levels are the intraday low of $1725 and the 50-period MA of $1715.
Follow ECB meeting at 14:45 MT time and ECB press conference at 15:30 MT time!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.