Today, two events will shake the US dollar. First, at 16:45 GMT+2, Markit, a statistical company, will release the US Flash Services PMI. Moreover, at 21:00 GMT+2, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes.
Big Event for USD: Retail Sales
What will happen?
The US will publish the Retail Sales on January 14, Friday, at 15:30 GMT+2. Notice that there are two versions of this indicator: Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. What is the difference? The core release excludes auto sales due to their high volatility.
Why is it important?
Retail sales are the primary measure of consumer spending, which accounts for most economic activity in the US. Last time, sales came out worse than analysts expected: 0.3% vs 0.8%.
How to trade on US Retail Sales?
Open the economic calendar a few days before the US Retail Sales release and check the forecast. The USD can rise even before the release, just on expectations for high retail sales and vice versa.
- If the actual sales exceed the forecast, the USD will go up.
- If the actual sales miss the forecast, the USD will go down.
Instruments to trade: all the major pairs and XAU/USD.
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