Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Busy day ahead! Get ready with us!
The ECB statement and US unemployment claims will be out today. How the market will react?
Fundamentals
- The FDA will meet to discuss the vaccine of Pfizer and BionTEch. If it approves the vaccine, the widespread distribution will start in 24 hours. The market sentiment will immediately improve and riskier currencies (AUD, NZD) and stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) will surge.
- The EU and the UK have failed to reach the Brexit deal so far. Talks will continue further, signaling that both sides still want to make an agreement. Today the EU Economic Summit will be held during the day, that’s why we can expect some news from the Brexit front. The GBP will be sensitive to any Brexit developments.
- ECB will make a monetary policy and rate statement at 14:45 MT time. Societe Generale forecasts the ECB will extend its bond-buying program by extra 600 billion euros. Indeed, the ECB may try to push the EUR down as the central bank isn’t satisfied with the increased euro.
- Follow us unemployment claims today at 15:30 MT time. If the actual numbers are better than the forecast of 725 000, the USD will rise. Otherwise – drop.
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Technical tips
EUR/USD
The 50-period moving average has stopped EUR/USD from further falling. If the pair manages to break the resistance of 1.2100, the way up to yesterday’s high of 1.2135 and the upper trendline will be open. On the flip side, if it falls below the support of 1.2075, it may drop to the low of December 2 at 1.2050.
GOLD
XAU/USD is trading sideways near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1 840. If it manages to break through it, the way up to the 50% Fibo level of $1 865 will be open. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $1 825, it may fall to the next support of $1 810.
GBP/USD
The pair is moving in the ascending channel, driven by vaccine hopes. Support levels of the recent lows at 1.3300 and 1.3265 should constrain the pair from further falling. If it jumps above the resistance of 1.3400, it may rise to yesterday’s high of 1.3460. Follow Brexit news!
AUD/USD
The aussie is edging higher, supported by the 50-period moving average. If it closes above the resistance of 0.7500, the doors will be open towards the next resistance of 0.7550. On the flip side, if it falls to the 50-period moving average of 0.7400, it’s likely to pull back and turn to the upside.
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Latest news
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
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