Can ECB Surprise Traders?

What will happen?

The European central bank will announce the main refinancing rate and make a monetary policy statement at the ECB press conference on Thursday, June 9, at 14:45 MT. It happens eight times a year. The central bank will share the current interest rate details and give the overall economic outlook and inflation forecasts. In addition, the ECB may provide clues about future monetary policy.

How can EUR react?

At the last meeting, on April 14, there was nothing particularly negative in the ECB statement. In a press statement after the meeting, Christine Lagarde claimed that the eurozone was more vulnerable to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis than the US, and that’s why the ECB can’t guarantee growth. The forecast made by the ECB was more “stagflationary.” Thus, it isn’t clear if the faster risk hikes are coming due to rising consumption. It would be the most obvious positive outlook for the euro.

The previous meeting brought volatility to the EUR. After the announcement, EURGBP lost more than 200 points, and after the press conference, there were around 450 points down.

If you traded 1 lot at that time, you would have earned $604.

How to trade on the ECB meeting?

If the ECB statement is more hawkish than forecasted, EURUSD will likely rise. In a more dovish situation, EURUSD will likely fall.

Check the Economic Calendar.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURCAD, EURGBP.

Alina Venediktova

More by this author

Similar

21.06.2022 09:10 Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.