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Can you make a profit on American inflation?
The US monthly CPI is announced at 15:30 MT time on Thursday.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
Last year, US inflation was moving within the corridor of 0.1% to 0.4%, with the exception of January and September when it came at the zero level.
December 0.2% was just a bit lower than the expected 0.3% and did not create a significant reaction in the USD. The currency did not show any noticeable response to that announcement: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, and other pairs continued their respective trends with little correlation to the released CPI.
Hence, it is safe to assume that the USD will keep its respective course against other currencies on the day of the CPI release unless the discrepancy between the market expectation and the actual number is significant.
- If the indicator substantially outperforms the forecast, the USD will be boosted.
- If the indicator undershoots the expectations, the USD will drop.
Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
The US will reveal Non-farm payrolls on January 7, Friday, at 15:30 GMT+2 (MetaTrader time).
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.