The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Can you trade the NZD on the interest rate release?
The RBNZ releases its interest rate and gives a press conference at 03:00 MT time on Wednesday.
Instruments to trade: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY
The last release of the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was quite a surprise. The market was expecting to see a 0.25 rate cut, but the bank informed that there was no need for that and kept the rate at 1%.
The rate was at 1.75% throughout 2018, then after two cuts in 2019, it came to 1%, where it is now. When the RBNZ went against forecasts on November 13, the NZD got a big boost.
It rose by approximately 80 pips against the USD, consequently getting out of the sideways movement and entering an upswing, which lasted until the beginning of January.
Hence, the NZD may receive another push upwards from the bank, as long as the latter sees the economy strong enough to keep the rate at the present level. At the same time, things have changes since November, with the coronavirus and everything, so be attentive and manage the risks.
- If the RBNZ is hawkish, the NZD will rise.
- If the RBNZ is dovish, the NZD will drop.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.