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In October, the Canadian economy managed to surge at a faster-than-anticipated tempo, although evidence of economic momentum heading into the end of 2018 might not be enough to get the country’s key financial institution out of the sidelines because of the recent dive in crude.
In October, the country’s GDP headed north by 0.3% from the previous month, underpinned by strength in insurance, manufacturing, and finance. That’s what Statistics Canada data revealed.
Market experts had hoped that monthly GDP would tack on by up to 0.2%.
Since October, the price of crude, which appears to be one of the country’s key exports, has gone down nearly 40%.
Since July last year the Bank of Canada has had its benchmark interest rate lifted up to five times bringing it to the reading of 1.75%. However, hopes for further tightening were confounded after Canada’s main financial institution left rates intact earlier this month and hinted that the tempo of future lifts could be more gradual.
Financial markets count on 14 basis points of tightening in 2019, in contrast with 43 basis points prior to the December policy announcement.
Market experts still hope annualized fourth-quarter surge would fall short of the major bank’s 2.3% forecast because of crude production trims.
As some market experts pointed out, the data gets along with their 1.7% forecast for Q4 GDP. However, they will require reliable news outside the energy sector to have that mark reached.
On Friday, the Canadian dollar went down reaching a 19-month minimum of 1.3564 to the evergreen buck due to the fact that pressure on equities and the price of crude compensated the firmer-than-anticipated GDP leap.
According to separate data from Statistics Canada, the value of the country’s retail trade managed to leap by 0.3% in October the previous month due to higher sales at car dealers as well as gasoline stations. Market experts had predicted a 0.4% rally.
The Canadian central bank will announce interest rates and make a speech on Wednesday, July 15, at 17:00 MT time. Also, the BOC press conference will be later at 18:15 MT time.
Morgan Stanley analytics forecast the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter. Here’s why.
Traders are waiting for the Fed statement at 21:00 MT time. The market reaction depends on how far their expectations will meet the Jerome Powell’s speech.
Follow the report on August 14 at 15:30 MT time!
The market sentiment switched to risk-on. The US dollar is dipping down, while riskier assets are rising, especially the Australian dollar after the positive employment data. All eyes on US unemployment claims.
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