Chinese data is full of surprises

Chinese data is full of surprises

China will publish manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs on December 31, at 3:00 MT time.

Instruments to trade: USD/CNH, EUR/CNH

Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are indicators that show how businesses in China see the current situation in the industry. Their calculations are based on surveys of a big number of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services industries. If the index is bigger than 50, the industry is expanding. Alternatively, if the index is lower than 50, the industry is contracting. Besides indicators' direct impact on the Chinese yuan, these indicators tend to determine the risk sentiment during the Asian trading session. Last time, both indicators came out higher than the forecasts. While manufacturing PMI reached 52.1 (vs. the forecast of 51.6), non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.4 (vs. 56 points expected). Despite that, the CNH weakened back then. This time, due to the lack of events and pre-holiday mood, the situation may be completely different.

  • If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the CNH will strengthen;
  • In case of an alternative scenario, CNH will weaken.

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The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.

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