USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.
Currency market update on March 9
In times of turbulence, the best thing that you can do – stay oriented. Hence, let’s have a look at currency pairs and see “who does what” so you can have a tactical perspective. Specifically, we will identify the lowest spots and the high ground of the current disposition in Forex - both are best seen through the prism of the JPY.
USD and EUR: giving ground to the true safe-haven in Japan
Unlike a while ago, the JPY, even despite internal economic challenges in Japan and external damage from the coronavirus, now enjoys the status of the primary safe-haven currency. Both the USD and the EUR lost value significantly against the Japanese yen, which now trades at 102.25 against the US dollar and at 116.90 against the euro. Both currency pairs are at tactical lows, with the USD/JPY testing the supports of 2016. Given the fact that the virus is now more active in other countries rather than China itself, there is a solid reason to expect JPY to grow further against the other currencies.
AUD and NZD: the weak link
Among other currencies, the AUD and NZD suffer the worst damage. Especially, against the JPY. The AUD/JPY dropped to the lows of 20008, while the NZDJPY is testing the support of late 2012. That is due to the fact that both Australia and New Zealand have a large part of their exports tied to China, which in turn takes a big chunk of their GDP. Hence, the subdued consumption in China takes a direct shot at these economies reducing the value of their respective currencies. And JPY, as it is currently superior to the USD as a reserve currency, gives the strongest contrast to the depreciation of the AUD and NZD. Hence, both currency pairs are expected to stay at rock-bottom levels and probably go further below.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
PMI reports from the EU, the UK, and the USA will be released during the day!
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
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