The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
Daily News: a lot of news
- The US dollar index is above the psychological level at $94.50. However, there are no significant data that could support the rise to $95. Up to now, the index has been falling to the support at $94.50. If no crucial news shakes the market, the fall below $94.50 is anticipated.
- News on the Brexit deal! To hit the deadlock in the Brexit negotiation, Britain agreed that the European Court of Justice would give a final word in the arbitration of arguments over the working of Brexit, any disputes over Britain’s £39 billion bill, and Irish border But not all are happy with this concession. This issue will bring more dissensions in the UK government.
What about the pound?
GBP/USD has been moving up (any progress in the Brexit deal always support the GBP). The trading isn’t extensive. However, there is a gap that may signal about the further upward movement. The resistance lies at 1.3125 (the pivot point). As soon as the pair sticks above this level, chances of the rise will increase. Otherwise, the fall to 1.3040 may happen.
- The ANZ Bank has a positive outlook on the EUR. According to the Bank, in the medium-term, the EUR/USD will move to 1.25 and higher. The first reason is a progress in trade talks between the US and the EU. The second reason is confident Mr. Draghi about the economic conditions. The Bank suggests buying the EUR/USD at the current level and wait for the rise.
Up to now, the pair has been moving to the resistance at 1.1675. 50-day MA puts strong pressure on the further rise. No significant economic data will be out today. The euro needs the weak USD to break the resistance. As soon as it appears above it, chances of the further rise will increase. The next resistance is at 1.1730. Otherwise, there are risks of the reversal to 1.16.
- The Chinese yuan has been depreciating against the USD again. USD/CNH has been trading near 6.85. However, according to Goldman Sachs, the weak yuan may be an effective tool against the tariffs. A yuan drop of 10% against the basket may support the export growth, add points in the GDP and encourage the CPI data.
- The USD/JPY pair keeps trading within the 110.80-111.30 channel. No important economic data will be released for either the USD or the JPY. Traders are waiting for the BOJ meeting that will take place tomorrow. Mounting talks about changes in the Central Bank’s monetary policy create a volatility in the market. The market anticipates that the Bank may give clues on the tapering of the Quantitative Easing. If the market is disappointed, the Japanese yen will depreciate against the USD. As a result, the pair will move to the next resistance at 112.65. If the market gets clues on the QE exit, chances of the yen’s rise will increase. The pair will break below 110.80.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
Read a short market wrap before trading today!
The United States will publish the non-farm employment change, also known as non-farm payrolls or NFP at 15:30 MT (GMT+3) time on August 6.
Our analyst discusses the latest news and shares his trade ideas on gold, EUR/USD, and S&P 500. Jump in!