The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
Daily News: markets are calm
- The US dollar index is stopped by the psychological level at $95 again. The index has already tested this level today, so traders are waiting for economic data. Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims will be out at 15:30 MT time. The forecast isn’t encouraging, as a result, there are risks that the index won’t be able to break $95 level again.
- The pound is falling ahead of the BOE’s meeting. The rate hike is not anticipated, however, traders will pay attention to comments on the economic conditions. If the central bank increases its forecast for the further economic growth, the GBP will recover. However, such comments are unlikely. The same or weaker forecast will pull GBP/USD lower. Up to now, it’s trading below the support at 1.3180. Negative comments will pull the pair to 1.3080. Some hawkish sounding words will return the pair above 1.3180.
- Bad news for the oil market. Iran says it could agree on a small increase in the OPEC and allies output, however, before it refused this proposal from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
As a result, Brent appeared to be below the pivot point at $74.40 again. WTI is near the pivot point at $65.25, however, yesterday it tested the resistance at $66.20.
Now traders should wait for today and tomorrow meetings of OPEC and its allies. If they agree to increase the output, the oil will decline further.
- Oil is down, the USD/CAD pair is up. The pair managed to break the resistance at 1.3290 and is rising further. No important Canadian economic data is anticipated today, as a result, there are odds of the further movement up. The resistance is at 1.3380.
- The Australian dollar is lower and lower. AUD/USD broke the support at 0.7380. Moving Averages are moving down, that is a negative signal for the pair. No important Australian economic data will be out today, so there are risks of the further fall. The support lies at 0.7315. However, if the US dollar is weaker, the AUD has chances to recover. 0.7380 is an important level to break above.
- Despite the fact that the AUD and CAD are weak, the Goldman Sachs is bullish on them. Analysts think that the aussie and loonie will benefit from a global growth momentum, improving terms of trade and an outlook on their monetary policies. The bank thinks that the USD will weaken versus the AUD and CAD. Let’s see whether it will happen. At least, an outlook on the Australian interest rate is not optimistic.
- Bitcoin is trying to recover. It’s trading above $6,500 for the third day. There is no significant news, that’s why the trading is calm. But if the cryptocurrency market will be shacked with some events, the further direction of Bitcoin will be determined. However, risks of the fall to $6,000 are still strong.
That is all for today. Follow markets’ news with us!
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.