Will the Fed Chair changes his views during the speech today?
Daily News: mixed moves
- The US dollar index has been showing mixed moves. On Friday, it surged to highs of July 2017. Monday trading shocked with a plunge below 95.50. However, up to now, the index has been climbing to 96.50 again. A high volatility of the USD creates significant moves in the market. The US dollar index needs a strong support to stick near 96.50. That’s why further moves are anticipated to be highly volatile. The resistance is at 96.50. The support is at 95.
- Although the US dollar index has been recovering after the yesterday plunge, most of the major currencies are appreciating against the USD.
The GBP/USD pair has been trying to recover. We have already got Tuesday economic data. The figures are mixed, but the decline in average earnings index data is a negative signal for the pair. GBP/USD has tested the resistance near 1.2830, but the weak data doesn’t let it rise further. If the USD keeps strengthening today, there are risks of the fall to the support at 1.2720.
- NZD/USD has been climbing to the resistance at 0.6635 (the pivot point). To get chances for recovering, the pair needs to break above the pivot point. However, the trading isn’t extensive and the USD is rising, so chances to break above 0.6635 are low. The pair is anticipated to keep trading within 0.6535 (the trendline) – 0.6635.
A forecast for the RBNZ interest rate:
Westpac forecasts a rate hike in May 2020 instead of November 2019. Moreover, the bank gives one of three possibilities of a rate cut. However, it expects that improved economic data won’t let the central bank to cut the rate.
- The Australian dollar keeps suffering for the fourth day. No important economic data will be out today. As a result, risks of the fall of AUD/USD to 0.7230 are high.
- Some political news. South Korean President will go to Pyongyang for a meeting with North Korean President in September. Let’s see where parties will come. But positive signals should pull the yen down.
- Bitcoin has tested below $6,000. However, it’s not only the major cryptocurrency that suffered but other digital currencies as well. If Bitcoin closes below $6,000 today, the next support will lie at $5,600. In case of a recovery, the resistance is at $6,360.
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