The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Daily News: Monday, February 19
The beginning of the week starts with interesting economic events. Stay informed!
- Asian equities have shown their best figures since September 2016, despite the Lunar New Year holiday and in the U.S. for Presidents’ Day. It affected oil prices a lot.
- Oil hit the highest level in two weeks. US WTI reached $62.41 per barrel, Brent $65.44 per barrel. However, it has been under pressure from the rise in US rig count (rose by seven to 798 – its highest since April 2015) and small US dollar recovery. Market holidays in the US and China are supposed to slow down trading.
- US 10-year Treasury yields reached its best numbers in four years of 3% based on positive consumer prices’ data. However, there are doubts among experts that they will go further. Reasons are hidden in the gradual rise of US inflation. So let’s see.
- New difficulties in Brexit deal. The European Parliament Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt said that trade deal will not be finalized before an exit day. It will be an “annex” inside the withdrawal agreement that will clarify how a future relationship will look like, it will be applied during the transitional period while current rules remain in place.
- Such decision was banned by the UK Prime Minister before. It will definitely lead to more difficulties in negotiations.
- USD/JPY could go away from the dangerous figure of 105. After reaching 105.538, the pair turned in the opposite direction. However, the Japanese trade balance data was better than expected.
- The US dollar is still falling.
- Bitcoin is in a positive mood. On Friday BTC/USD closed higher $10,000 on Bitfinex. Although we can see a slight fall after weekends, Bitcoin is climbing to $11,000. It has good chances to hit this level.
- What to expect this week: on Tuesday at 2:30 MT time the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, on Wednesday at 16:15 MT time the UK Inflation Report Hearings, at 22:00 MT time FOMC Meeting Minutes, on Thursday at 14:30 MT time ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, at 23:45 MT time New Zealand Retail Sales q/q, on Friday at 15:30 MT time Canadian CPI m/m.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Australia will release employment change and an unemployment rate on Thursday, October 14, at 03:30 MT (GMT+3).
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).