Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 19:05 MT time. This event is crucial for traders as the tone of the speech may set the risk tone for the markets for the next two weeks.
Daily News: Monday, March 12
Friday US jobs mixed data negatively affected the US dollar but supported stocks and commodity currencies. Let’s see more closely.
- Asian stocks rallied after the release of the US jobs data. Although nonfarm payrolls increased by 313K more than expected and showed the continuing strengthening of the American economy, a weaker figure of monthly average hourly earnings eased worries about inflation and faster rate hikes. The weakening of forecasts on the dollar’s quicker strengthening led to the stocks’ increase.
- The US dollar index slightly declined based on the mix jobs data.
- Furthermore, the US jobs figures supported commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. The aussie could break the resistance at 0.7860 and started climbing further. The next support is at 0.79.
The US dollar is continuing to depreciate against the loonie since Thursday, March 8. USD/CAD reached the support at 1.28, but could not break it and now the pair is trading quite above the support line.
- The yen is rising again. However, the USD/JPY pair has not reached any important levels yet. If the greenback is able to find a support, the pair will turn around.
- Some words about the single currency and the cable. The euro is slightly rising. However, no important data is anticipated in next days. The pair is trading near 1.2330, the resistance lies at 1.2360.
The cable is continuing its Friday rise. In next recent days, no important data will be released as well. The pair could increase to 1.3870, the resistance lies at 1.3910.
- Oil could rise based on the reduced US drilling activity and positive nonfarm payrolls’ data. Last week US energy companies reduced oil rigs for the first time in almost two months. Moreover, the great increase of jobs may drive higher fuel demand. However, oil prices could not secure a foothold and now WTI and Brent are depreciating.
- After the unsuccessful last week, bitcoin is moving up. On Sunday bitcoin could close above $9,500, now it is trading in this range. However, the volume of purchases was not big, and bitcoin had not broken any resistance levels. More likely, there will be the continuation of the consolidation in a range of $8,500 and $10,000.
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time.
Australian GDP rose by 3.1%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 2.5%. The Australian dollar climbed after the release, but then joined its peers in falling against the USD.
Great news for oil bulls! OPEC and its allied producers agreed to expand output cuts for the next month.
The USD skyrocketed after Fed Powell’s speech. OPEC and allied producers agreed to extend production cuts for another month. Oil surged.
The European Central Bank publishes its monetary policy statement that includes an announcement of the interest rate on March 11, at 14:45 MT time.