The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Daily News: NAFTA, oil and the recovering USD
- The USD is trying to recover from lows of the beginning of August. Yesterday the index fell to 95. Up to now, the trading isn’t extensive as traders are waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes’ release (21:00 MT time). If traders get positive clues on the economic conditions, the USD will be able to recover further. The resistance is at 95.50. A dovish sentiment of the record will pull it down again. The support is at 95. The next one is at 94.15.
- Oil traders are waiting for crude oil inventories data (17:30 MT time). The forecast is positive for the oil prices. If the actual data shows a greater decline, the oil market will appreciate even more.
Brent has been trading near the resistance at 73.20. It needs positive economic data to break above the resistance and go further up. 50-day MA (74.40) will be the next resistance level for the price. If the economic data isn’t supportive for the oil market, prices will turn around. The support is at 71.80. The next one is at 70.40 (200-day MA).
WTI has been rising as well. In case of the encouraging data, the price will go up to the resistance at 67.10. The next resistance is at 68.50 (100-day MA). If the data is negative for the oil prices, WTI will go down. The first support is at 64.85 (200-day MA). The next one is at 62.80.
Traders should also follow comments on the situation around the Iranian oil export share. Earlier Saudi Arabia offered to share quotas among OPEC countries of those members who can’t produce enough to support the bigger spare capacity (up to date, it’s Iran). Iran is against such a proposal. Let’s see whether OPEC members are able to come to an agreement.
If members agree to share quotas, a risk of a tight support will ease and as a result, prices will go down. Otherwise, the oil market has chances to rise.
- What’s happening to the NAFTA deal?
Talks between the US and Mexico were postponed until Wednesday. Any agreement on the deal will pull the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso up. Otherwise, the USD will strengthen.
Up to now, the USD/CAD pair has been moving up. The resistance is at 1.3095 (the pivot point). In case of the agreement, the pair will break the support at 1.3016. The next one will lie at 1.2970 (100-day MA).
The USD is strengthening against the Mexican peso as well. However, the resistance at 19.02 is too strong (200-day MA). Moreover, 50-day MA has crossed 100-day MA upside down, that is a negative signal for the pair. The support is at 18.85. The next one is at 18.4850.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
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The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
Great Britain will publish the Inflation Rate on October 20, at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3).
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