Daily News: the oil shock

Daily News: the oil shock

  • The US dollar index is a little bit weaker today. Yesterday it managed to break above the psychological level at $94.50 and closed at $94.71. Economic data will affect the index today. CPI, core CPI and unemployment claims figures will be out at 15:30 MT time. The forecast is neutral: the inflation data forecast is similar to the previous data, unemployment claims figure forecast is greater than the previous data but not a lot. If the actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the US dollar index will go up. The resistance is at $95. The negative economic data will pull the index down. The support is at $94.

usd.png

The USD is weaker, other currencies are recovering.

  • Yesterday EUR/USD couldn’t stick above the resistance at 1.1735 and fell below the support at 1.17 (the pivot point). Up to now, the pair has been trying to recover. ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (release at 14:30 MT time) may affect the euro. If there are some positive clues on the economic conditions, the pair will be able to break above the pivot point. 50-day MA near 1.1725 will be the next level to break. If the market doesn’t get any positive clues, there will be risks of the further fall. The support is at 1.1630.

EURUSDDaily.png

  • It’s an important day for the pound. The UK government will release its White paper with new proposals on the Brexit deal. Previously, the market was shocked by some resignations in the UK government. However, now the main risk is a vote of no confidence for Theresa May.

There is a chance that the pound will strengthen after the release of the White Paper, as any progress on the deal is a key to the GBP growth.

Up to now, GBP/USD has been moving to the resistance at 1.3225 (the pivot point). Positive signals after the release will pull the pair above it. The next resistance is at 1.3280. Otherwise, the pair will turn around to the support at 1.3155.

GBPUSDDaily.png

  • The oil market shocked traders on Wednesday. Both oil benchmarks strongly fell. The reason is the unexpected significant rise of the oil production in Saudi Arabia. Even a strong decline in the number of crude oil inventories didn’t support the oil price. Brent fell from $78.65 to $73.05, the fall of WTI wasn’t so big but significant as well: from $73.95 to $70.01.   Up to now, the market has calmed down. As a result, both oil benchmarks have been recovering. Brent is trading near the resistance at $74.90. If it’s able to break it, the next resistance is at $76.

Brent_OilDaily.png

WTI rebounded from the support at $70.63. The resistance is at $72.20.

WTI_OilDaily.png

If there is no shocking news in the near future, oil has chances to recover. MAs are moving up on Brent and WTI charts. This is a good signal for the oil prices.

A forecast form ANZ.

According to the bank, a net production will increase by 600K bbl a day in the second half of 2018. The increase will come at the cost of the spare capacity. The possibility of the production rise in 2m bbl a day by Saudi Arabia is unlikely because it will diminish the spare capacity to 0. OPEC supply will be limited with further disruptions (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, Angola).

What about demand? Trade wars tensions will affect the economic growth and as a result, the oil demand. The forecast for the oil market: oil prices will remain volatile. Prices will be in a range of $75-80 a barrel in the second half of 2018.

That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!

Similar

US Evades Default This Time
US Evades Default This Time

Greetings to a brand new week full of events, economic releases and US debt frictions. We are here to tell you everything you need to know!

USD Gains Momentum
USD Gains Momentum

The US dollar index breaks one resistance after another. Read the report to learn the next target for the US dollar index!

Latest news

No More US Debts in Sight
No More US Debts in Sight

The first day of June should’ve brought us the US default. Unsurprisingly, the US House passes the debt ceiling bill at the latest possible moment.

Gold Rises as Central Banks Buy More
Gold Rises as Central Banks Buy More

About 24% of global central banks intend to increase gold reserves in 2023. Rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and worries about interest rates are reasons to increase gold reserves.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Feel the Team Spirit

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera