What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Daily News: the strong USD stops other currencies
- Although yesterday the US dollar index closed at the low level comparing to the daily movement, today it has been moving up again. Up to now, the index has been trading around $95.30. Today trader will pay attention to Philly Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims (15:30 MT time) and FOMC member Quarles speaks (16:00 MT time). If the data are encouraging, the US dollar index will be able to stick near $95.50. Otherwise, there are risks of the fall to $95.
- The pound has been moving further down because of the weak economic data and the strong USD. The retail sales figure was weaker than the forecast (-0.5% vs 0.1%). The support is at 1.2970, the next one is at 1.2840. The Ichimoku cloud signals the downward movement. If the USD slows down its rise, the pair will be able to stay within 1.2970-1.31.
- The Japanese yen keeps depreciating against the USD. USD/JPY has been trading within 112.80-113. The further rise of the USD will pull the pair above 113. MAs move up. It’s a positive signal for the pair. As a result, Thomson Reuters IFR Markets’ forecasts of 113.40 and 113.75 may become a reality. If the USD doesn’t increase its rise today, the support will lie at 112.80.
- The rise of the USD didn’t let the AUD rise. Although the Australian employment change data was much greater than the forecast and the unemployment rate figure was similar to the forecast, the AUD plunged. Positive data let AUD/USD test the resistance at 0.7420 (the pivot point) but the strong USD pulled the pair down to the support at 0.7360. If the USD is stronger, the pair will break the support and will move to the next one at 0.73. Otherwise, it will have chances to trade within 0.7360-0.7420.
- The New Zealand dollar has been depreciating as well. NZD/USD has broken the support at 0.6780 (the pivot point). The next support lies at 0.67. The NZD needs the weaker USD to return to 0.6780.
The situation around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unstable. There are risks of the interest rate cut that will pull the NZD down.
However, Goldman Sachs has another forecast. According to the Bank, the RBNZ will increase the interest rate to 2% in February 2019. Let’s see.
- Bitcoin tried to reach the psychological level at $7,500 but the 100-day MA stopped it. The trading is not extensive but bears prevail. On H4, 50-hour MA is near to cross the 100-hour MA bottom up. It’s a positive signal for Bitcoin. As a result, it has chances to turn around. The support lies at $7,000, the resistance is still at $7,500.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).