News on October 1

Canada and the US reached the final decision on the NAFTA deal on Sunday. It has been called United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement since now. Trump will sign the agreement at the end of November and submit it to the US congress. Tariff decisions on steel and aluminum will be conducted in a different letter. An increase of dairy access to the Canadian market and protection of Canadian cultural industries are among the key points of these negotiations. As a result, USD/CAD dropped massively to its May’s lows below the 200-day MA at 1.2867 and aiming downwards the support at 1.2787. The next support is at 1.2740. If the positive news on the USD comes out, the pair can increase. In that case, it will return to resistance at 1.2847.

The figure of manufacturing PMI of Great Britain was released today at 11:30 MT time. It reached higher than expected level and overcame the last month results (53.8 vs 53.0). At the same time, Brexit talks keep affecting the GBP. The UK finance minister Hammond said that the Canada-style trade agreement is not suitable for Great Britain. He also noted that once the deal would be reached, a boost to the UK economy could be possible. For now GPB/USD is trying to climb to the resistance at 1.3080. The next support for the pair is at 1.2943. In case of negative news, support lies at 1.2985 (50-day MA).

The USD is awaiting for the manufacturing PMI index as well. It is forecast to be lower, than in the previous period (60.1 vs 61.3). In case of positive news, the resistance for the USD index is at 95.00, otherwise it will fall to the support at 94.45.

EUR/USD keeps struggling with the problem of Italian budget. Up to now, the EU is anticipating more information concerning Italian budget data and responses from rating agencies. At the moment the pair is testing the 50-day MA at 1.1610, the next support is at 1.1506. If bulls strike back, the resistance is at 1.1661.

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cad - canadian dollar

Author: FBS Analyst Team

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