What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Daily News: the USD is going down
- The US dollar index is lower today moving to 96.50. On Wednesday, the index tested levels near 97 but couldn’t stick there. Maybe positive news on the US-China trade war affected the USD as it’s supposed to rise in times of uncertainties. Today’s economic data (15:30 MT time) may support the USD, so it will stay above 96.50. Otherwise, the next support is at 96.
- As we mentioned above, trade war tensions between the US and China eased. China’s vice commerce minister will visit the US for talks in late August. Any progress on the dispute will support the AUD and CNH but will affect the JPY and won’t support the USD.
- Some words about the AUD. Australian job data was released at 4:30 MT time. Although the unemployment rate figure was positive, the employment change data showed a great decline. The data were supposed to cause the fall of the AUD but news on the easing trade tensions and the weakness of the USD pulled the AUD up. Moreover, yesterday the hammer candlestick was formed. It may signal the end of the downward movement. Up to now, AUD/USD has been trading near 0.7260. However, the AUD needs strong support to reach the resistance at 0.7340. If the USD recovers, there will be risks of the return to 0.7230.
- Trade tensions eased, the USD/JPY pair is recovering after yesterday fall. Up to now, the pair has been moving to the resistance at 111. However, the trading is uncertain as the USD is weakening. If the USD is weaker today, there are risks that the pair will close near 110.40.
- Yesterday oil benchmarks strongly depreciated because of the unexpected rise in the crude oil inventories data. WTI fell to 64.52, Brent tested levels near 70.30. As a result, the Canadian dollar suffered a lot yesterday. Up to now, USD/CAD has been falling as the USD is going down. Today traders will look at Canadian manufacturing sales data. The forecast is weak but if the actual data is greater than the forecast, it will encourage the Canadian dollar. The support lies at 1.31. If the USD recovers, there are odds that the pair will turn around. The trendline at 1.3155 is the resistance.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).