Will the Fed Chair changes his views during the speech today?
Daily News: the USD is near the psychological level
- The US dollar index doesn't have enough support to move up. Yesterday the index came back to the psychological level at 95. Up to now, it has been trying to rebound from the support, however, the rise isn’t extensive. The market is anticipating new tariffs on China but Trump is silent. ADP non-farm employment change (15:15 MT time) and ISM non-manufacturing PMI (17:00 MT time) figures will be out today. If the actual data are greater than the forecast, the index will get support to not fall below 95. The resistance lies at 95.70. Negative data and easing of the trade tensions and the NAFTA disputes may pull the index down. Supports are at 95 and 94.50.
- The euro has been trying to go further down. However, worries about the future of the European economy weigh on the price. Experts noticed an increasing correlation between MSCI Europe (Modern Index Strategy Indexes) and MSCI Emerging Markets. The emerging markets suffer significantly with the crisis in Turkey and Argentina. A further worsening of the situation on the emerging markets will affect the euro.
Up to now, the euro needs a weak USD to break above the pivot point at 1.1640. If EUR/USD is able to stick above the pivot point, the further rise will be more likely. However, if the USD becomes stronger, the pair will stay under the pivot point. Supports are at 1.1610 (50-day MA) and 1.1545.
- It’s worth looking at the oil market today. Brent and WTI are recovering ahead of the release of the crude oil inventories data (18:00 MT time). The forecast signals the fall of the inventories, however, it is less than the previous data. If the actual data shows a greater deficit, both oil benchmarks will go up.
Brent needs support to break above $77.25 (9-day MA). In case of the positive data, the price will go up. The resistance is at $78.30. 20-day MA has crossed 50-day MA bottom up that is a positive signal for the benchmark. If the data isn’t encouraging, the price will go down. Supports are at $77 and $75.40.
WTI has been trying to rise as well. However, traders are not sure about the economic data, so the trading isn’t extensive. 9-day MA is near to cross 50-day MA bottom up. It’s a positive sign for the price. If the data shows the greater deficit in the number of inventories, WTI price will go up. The resistance is at $69.40. If the data isn’t good for the prices, WTI will fall. Supports are at $68.25, $68 and $67.30.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
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