The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
ECB meeting is key for the EUR
The euro is under pressure. Its fall continues since the middle of April. EUR/USD reached the lowest levels since November 2017. A strong plunge of the single currency is caused by the weak economic data. The European economy suffers because of political problems in Italy, the Brexit deal, and trade wars.
The European Central Bank will release the interest rate at 14:45 MT time on June 14. At 15:30 MT time, the central bank will hold a press conference.
The ECB has been keeping the interest rate on hold since March 2016. Investors don’t expect the interest rate to be changed as the central bank hasn’t ended the quantitative easing yet. At the previous meeting, the ECB stated that “members broadly agreed that an ample degree of monetary policy accommodation remained necessary to accompany the economic expansion and secure the gradual convergence of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2%. The remaining uncertainties and the still muted underlying inflation pressures continued to justify caution and underlined the need to maintain patience, persistence, and prudence with regard to monetary policy”. It puts additional pressure on the euro.
If the central bank stays cautious this time as well, the euro won’t have chances to recover.
• Dovish ECB – weak euro;
• Hawkish ECB – strong euro.
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.
Stock significantly surged: S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 6-week highs. The market sentiment may deteriorate today as Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine trails have been stopped because of the unexplained illness.
Three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. Let's look how market reacts.
The US Department of Justice thinks 87% a market share is too much for Google alone. The market thinks it's ok.
EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI will come out on Friday at 11:00 MT time!