"Buy the rumor - sell the fact" action for USD/TRY
During today's Turkish central bank meeting, the market anticipated a rate cut between 200-300 pips.
European luxury equities dip 30%
An all-out trade conflict could provoke a 30% dip in equities of EU makers of luxury products, as UBS informed.
Such a sag would occur in a worst-case scenario, which would include a 1% sink in gross domestic product surge worldwide, and a double-digit reduction in per-share profits in the sector. Apparently, the outlook showed up as luxury equities are currently trading at a premium, dropping a hint that market participants haven’t mostly priced in trade-related hazards.
China and America are still locked in a trade conflict. Donald Trump recently threatened to slap duties on all products imported from China that could amount to about $500 billion. China and America appear to be major markets for luxury products because they account for approximately 55% of sales.
There’s a 10% ascend in organic sales of luxury products now, with 35% of transactions in China. Some market experts are assured that in a worst-case trade conflict scenario, surge in organic sales would speed down to nearly 2% next year and per-share profits would sink about 12%. Additionally, global GDP surge would be cut from 4% to 3%, while global equity markets would sink by more than 20%.
The equities of European luxury companies generally dived nearly 24% in 2018.
The equities of Swiss watch maker Swatch Group AG UHR headed south 0.62%. As for UK clothing and accessories maker Burberry Group PLC BRBY, it rallied up to 0.57%, while Italian shoes and handbags and designer Salvatore Ferragamo SpA SFER lost 0.98%.
Meanwhile, Swatch boasts 70% of sales in the wholesale market. The given fact provokes greater volatility from restocking/destocking cycles.
In addition to this, forecasts as for such brands as Ferragamo and Burberry are high because market participants foresee further sales surge as well as margin expansion.
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Pay attention to the FOMC meeting, where the rate cut is expected. Also, it is recommended to keep an eye on the oil prices, updates on trade talks between the USD and China and, of course, Brexit.
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"Buy the rumor - sell the fact" action for USD/TRY
During today's Turkish central bank meeting, the market anticipated a rate cut between 200-300 pips.
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