How Energy Crisis Affects German PMI August 23, 2022, 10:30 GMT+3 Germany will publish Flash Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday, August 23, at 10:30 MT time (GMT+3)…
What Will Fluctuate the Market on August 15–19?
A new week means new trading opportunities! Here are some events that can fluctuate the market actively.
CAD Inflation Rate YoY
August 16, 2022, 15:30 GMT+3.
Statistics Canada will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, August 16 at 15:30 MT time. CPI is the most important monthly inflation-related release due to its earliness and wide coverage.
With inflation hitting a nearly 40-year high, Canada is experiencing financial hardship. Rising inflation comes amid lingering concerns from people and businesses across the country. Trying to cope with it, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate. The latest increase to a full percentage point is the largest single increase since 1998. And what’s the result? Let’s see after the release.
Last time the CPI release was lower than expected at 0.7% vs. 0.9%, there were no significant signals of inflation slowdown. There are still plenty of obstacles to the supply of goods and commodities.
- If the CPI is high, the CAD will rise.
- If the CPI is depressive, the CAD will fall.
Instruments to trade: USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY.
GBP Inflation Rate YoY
August 17,2022, 09:00 GMT+3.
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, August 17, at 09:00 MT time. CPI is one of the key indicators in assessing the economic situation, especially inflation. Inflation, in turn, is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead to rising interest rates.
The inflation in the UK keeps its anti-record at 9.4%, the highest rate since 1982. The news that the UK will introduce a planned power outage in the winter does not bring hope for a speedy recovery. Due to power shortages, libraries, government buildings, and even important railways may be closed for several days.
Last month’s CPI was 9.4%, outperforming the expected 9.3%. The GBPUSD had lost around 1150 points but recovered quickly. Let’s wait and see how it will react this time.
- The greater the “Actual” compared to the “Forecast”, the better it is for currency.
- If the actual number is higher than expected, GBP will rise.
- Otherwise, GBP will fall.
Instruments to trade: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCAD, GBPJPY.
US Retail Sales MoM
August 17, 2022, 15:30 GMT+3.
The US will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Wednesday, August 17 at 15:30 MT time. Both indicators demonstrate a change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Core Retail Sales differs as it does not count automobile sales.
In June, US Retail Sales sharply rebounded as Americans spent more gasoline and other commodities. The soaring inflation slightly calmed fears of an imminent recession but did not change the view that economic growth was sluggish in the second quarter. This month’s CPI showed a slowdown, which can be a sign of recovery.
Last month, the numbers were a little higher than expected: Retail Sales were 1.0% vs. 0.7%, while the Core Retail sales were slightly better than expected, 1.0% vs. 0.9%.
- If the indicators are greater than forecasted, the USD will rise.
- Alternatively, the USD will drop.
- Check the gold during the release. It can move as well.
Instruments to trade: XAUUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF.
Walmart Earnings Report
Walmart Earnings Report
Walmart, the world’s largest grocery store chain and the top US employer, will publish its Earnings Report on August 16, 2022, before opening hours. In early August, the retailer began laying off employees amid a cut in profit forecasts. According to management, this is a way to “improve the position of the company for a confident future.”
Walmart shares fell after the company cut its profit expectations as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on food and less on electronics and other discretionary categories. CEO Doug McMillon said aggressive discounts on clothing items also hurt profits.
If we look at the chart, now Walmart’s price is around $129. The price didn’t recover much after May’s earnings report. If the report is surprisingly great, the resistance level at $134 will be broken. In case of a worse-than-expected report, the next target can be $117.
Instruments to trade: WALMART.
Trading on the market events is a great chance to see how the price reacts to the releases. Check the Economic Calendar and use technical analysis to seize the right entry moment.
The US will announce the advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on July 28 at 15:30 MT time.
The ECB will make a statement regarding the future monetary policy on Thursday, July 21, at 15:15 MT time (GMT+3).
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
Every week we expect many interesting events that can shake the market.