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Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 19:05 MT time. This event is crucial for traders as the tone of the speech may set the risk tone for the markets for the next two weeks. Powell is expected to calm down the skeptical financial markets and push back speculation over the soon policy tightening. He has already mentioned on several occasions that the central bank isn’t going to increase rates any time soon and authorities will warn markets well in advance about any policy changes. Many investors believe that he will stick to this line, but there are still some concerns.
Fed Chair Powell's speech may include hints about the bank's thoughts on inflation as US inflation expectations reached the highest level since 2008 as yields resurge. US yields remain at the high level of 1.50%.
Fear of inflation makes investors concern that the Fed will have to tighten policy sooner than expected, by either cutting bond purchases or even raising rates. That would lead to stocks’ drop and the increased demand for the US dollar. However, Fed asks to cool down as the rise in yields was triggered by economic growth and stimulus. All of that is good for stocks.
Follow Fed Powell’s speech at 19:05 MT time and keep an eye on the charts, big moves are awaited!
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
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