Fed: time to determine the value of the USD

Fed: time to determine the value of the USD

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be one of the most aggressive major central banks when it gets to the monetary policy. While some banks have only started to discuss tapering of the extra monetary stimulus and others raised the interest rate 1-2 times, the Fed is expected to increase its rate 4 times this year. The Federal Reserve will release the federal funds rate at 21:00 MT time and hold the press conference at 21:30 MT time on September 26.

The probability of the September rate hike is near 100%. It means that the market is pretty sure in the outcome of the meeting. As a result, the Fed’s decision won’t affect the USD unless the Fed keeps the rate on hold (that is unlikely). If the central bank actually kept the rate unchanged, the USD would crash. But what will affect the direction of the US dollar is the FOMC statement. It will be the third rate hike this year and the market wants another one in December. If the Fed gives clues on the fourth hike, the USD will rise. If the Fed is cautious because of various economic, trade and political risks, the USD will plunge.

• Clues on the December hike and the USD goes up.

• Doubts about the December hike and the USD falls.

Check the economic calendar

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During the daily press briefing of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, it was announced that Mexico will receive 1.4 million doses of the vaccine by the end of January. Is that optimistic enough for the peso?

Latest news

Stocks up, USD down
Stocks up, USD down

S&P 500 skyrocketed to the all-time high on optimism that Biden’s fiscal stimulus will support economic growth and boost corporate earnings.

ECB report is in focus
ECB report is in focus

The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time. 

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