Fed: time to determine the value of the USD

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be one of the most aggressive major central banks when it gets to the monetary policy. While some banks have only started to discuss tapering of the extra monetary stimulus and others raised the interest rate 1-2 times, the Fed is expected to increase its rate 4 times this year. The Federal Reserve will release the federal funds rate at 21:00 MT time and hold the press conference at 21:30 MT time on September 26.

The probability of the September rate hike is near 100%. It means that the market is pretty sure in the outcome of the meeting. As a result, the Fed’s decision won’t affect the USD unless the Fed keeps the rate on hold (that is unlikely). If the central bank actually kept the rate unchanged, the USD would crash. But what will affect the direction of the US dollar is the FOMC statement. It will be the third rate hike this year and the market wants another one in December. If the Fed gives clues on the fourth hike, the USD will rise. If the Fed is cautious because of various economic, trade and political risks, the USD will plunge.

• Clues on the December hike and the USD goes up.

• Doubts about the December hike and the USD falls.

Check the economic calendar

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