The head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report on Tuesday and Wednesday
Fed: time to determine the value of the USD
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be one of the most aggressive major central banks when it gets to the monetary policy. While some banks have only started to discuss tapering of the extra monetary stimulus and others raised the interest rate 1-2 times, the Fed is expected to increase its rate 4 times this year. The Federal Reserve will release the federal funds rate at 21:00 MT time and hold the press conference at 21:30 MT time on September 26.
The probability of the September rate hike is near 100%. It means that the market is pretty sure in the outcome of the meeting. As a result, the Fed’s decision won’t affect the USD unless the Fed keeps the rate on hold (that is unlikely). If the central bank actually kept the rate unchanged, the USD would crash. But what will affect the direction of the US dollar is the FOMC statement. It will be the third rate hike this year and the market wants another one in December. If the Fed gives clues on the fourth hike, the USD will rise. If the Fed is cautious because of various economic, trade and political risks, the USD will plunge.
• Clues on the December hike and the USD goes up.
• Doubts about the December hike and the USD falls.
The United States will publish the non-farm employment change, also known as non-farm payrolls (NFP) at 15:30 MT time on February 7.
The level of non-manufacturing PMI for the United States by the Institute of Supply Management will be published at 17:00 MT time on February 5.
The Federal Open Market Committee will publish its meeting minutes on February 19, at 21:00 MT time.
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